Top of the 1st

Modeling notes, backtests, and honest numbers for the first inning.

• 2026-09-28 Does October favor the NRFI? Eleven postseasons say no Postseason first innings were scoreless 206/440 times from 2015 through 2025 (46.8%), against 12,493/25,227 (49.5%) in the same regular seasons. The aces do not show up in the first inning. The start time does: day games 56.1%, night games 41.8%.
• 2026-09-26 New on the board: click a hitter, see his last five against today's pitcher The Top 3 row on every game card is now clickable. Tap a name and you get that hitter's last five plate appearances against today's probable, with the inning and the result. No link if they've never met. Here is what it shows, what it doesn't, and how to read it without fooling yourself.
• 2026-09-22 Cold weather NRFI: what 50°F does to pitchers, hitters, and the first inning Open-air first innings under 60°F were scoreless 112/202 times in 2026 (55.4%) against 835/1,718 (48.6%) at 60°F and up. The physics of cold air, what it does to grip and bat speed, and how to read an NRFI or YRFI price when the forecast drops.
• 2026-09-04 Does weather change the first inning: 2026 NRFI splits Open-air games under 55°F were scoreless in 63/114 first innings (55.3%). 90°F and up were 51/118 (43.2%). What the board's weather multiplier does, and what 2026 cannot support.
• 2026-09-04 How often is the first inning scoreless: 49.6% in 2026 1,059 of 2,134 regular-season games through September 3, 2026 had a scoreless first inning (49.6%). Year-by-year MLB rates, and why 55% and 65% base-rate claims do not match the window.
• 2026-09-04 NRFI park factors: Coors 21/68, Camden 45/69 Observed first-inning scoring at every 2026 park through September 3. Coors Field 21/68 scoreless (30.9%). Camden Yards 45/69 (65.2%). Where static PARK_FACTORS disagree.
• 2026-08-17 NRFI model accuracy: a 2,134-game backtest The Full Count hit 98/160 (61.3%) on its daily top pick across 2,134 regular-season games through September 3, 2026, against a 49.6% league NRFI rate. Brier 0.2717.
• 2026-08-13 The first inning is the most modelable inning in baseball Starter fresh, lineup scripted, no bullpen chaos. Why inning one is where the data actually helps.
• 2026-08-12 Why we show our math The pick-seller shows you his record. We show you our formulas, our backtests, and our misses.