The first inning, modeled two ways
Every MLB matchup scored for no-run-first-inning probability, with venue splits, park and weather context, and one-click backtesting.
Unlock the board61.2% is The Full Count on its single highest-probability pick per day, across 1,819 regular-season games through August 13, 2026, recomputed every night. Not live results, and not what the whole board returns: across every game it scored, the same model hit 55.3%, which does not clear standard −130 pricing once the vig is paid. Backtests are reconstructions and can carry errors we have not found. How we measured this
What the board gives you
- Two models per game. The Full Count, our flagship, blends pitcher form, the top of the order, park and weather into a true probability; The Heater reads current form, weighting the most recent starts hardest.
- The inputs, not just the answer. Pitcher first-inning runs start by start, team scoring chips, top-of-the-order OBP, platoon and park factors, live weather.
- Backtesting built in. Pick any past date and the board shows every lean beside what actually happened in the 1st.
Honest numbers
We replay every regular-season game of 2026, and the replay runs again each night: 1,819 games across 139 slates through August 13, 2026, league NRFI rate 49.6%. The Full Count, the best performer of the five models we tested, hit 61.2% on its daily top pick. The Heater hit 57.6%. Those two are the models a pass unlocks; the three that lost are published in the methodology, not sold.
The part most sites leave out: across the entire board that same model hit 55.3%. Standard NRFI pricing needs 52.4% to break even at −110 and 56.5% at −130, so betting every game we publish is not a strategy. The edge sits at the top of the board and thins out fast below it. That is a real edge, not a lock, and we publish the method so you can rerun it yourself.